The opposition parties moved aggressively to take Harper out and form a coalition government. I think many people, including myself, are pleased with the prospects of cooperation in Ottawa. It would be a historic moment in our political history, putting an end to an era of bitter partisanship. If the coalition does what it promises to do, Canadians will benefit thanks to a strong stimulus package and the preservation of progressive policies that we take for granted. One of the changes that I hope to see is stimulus to post-secondary education in the form of an education transfer payment to the Provinces. We need to stop increasing tuition fees that have put so many young people into mortgage sized debts. 

However, the coalition hasn’t taken power yet and the political chess game is far from over. Harper still has a few moves left that could turn the momentum around. Lets take a look at his options, move by move:

1. He can ask Governor General’s permission to prorogue Parliament which would end the session until late January. By that time, he’ll have a budget ready with a strong stimulus package strategically designed to put him in a better position for the next election. Postponing the vote until late January will give him enough time to get the advertisement campaign in full swing. Of coarse, opposition parties will have the same opportunity which will mean that we’ll essentially be in an election-type campaign. 

2. Another election. If Harper is still Prime Minister by the end of January, that might be just enough time for him to make the case to Canadians and Governor General for a spring election. This will catch the Liberals off guard as they are still in the process of choosing their next leader.  

3. Harper could try to recruit opposition MP’s who disagree with having a coalition. He would need to find about 10 MP’s to get majority and he could offer senate or ministerial seats in exchange. It all depends on how desperate Harper will get and what the public opinion verdict will be on the prospect of the coalition government. 

4. Harper could strategically retreat and let the Liberal-NDP coalition govern during one of the worst economic times in recent history. If the stimulus package doesn’t get the job done in the minds of Canadians, Liberals and NDP will have to take full responsibility for any future economic recession. This strategy would be consistent with the Queen’s Gambit strategy I discussed before. Harper will hope that this will better position Conservatives for the next election.

My guess is that Harper will likely try to postpone the confidence vote for as long as possible. He’ll present a budget with a stimulus package that will be strategically designed with a future election in mind. After its voted down, he’ll hand over the government to the coalition and hope for public opinion to turn against them during one of the worst economic crisis the world has every seen. 

Therefore, the challenges for the coalition government will be to stay united and make sure they present an effective stimulus package. They need to prove the skeptics wrong and work together. Canada needs to emerge with a bright economic future and strengthened social programs. If that happens, I expect that Harper would loose the next election by large margins and will clearly loose his position as leader of the Conservatives party. In this case, history will not be kind to Harper as he will likely be remembered as one of the worst prime ministers in Canada’s recent memory, one who outsmarted himself.