Could we see a coalition government? The media and blogosphere have been having a blast with this story. Let me break down the chess game, move by move. 

Harper’s moves seems to resemble the strategy that chess players call the “Queen’s Gambit“. Its one of my favorite opening plays on players who don’t study the game. The basic principal is to move aggressively and then give up a pawn in order to trap your opponent into a weaker position that results in them loosing the rest of the game.  

1. The trap is initiated by Harper when the Minister of Finance offered a fairly weak economic update, nice sounding words but no plan for an economic stimulus. But the plan does include one important change: the end of the $1.95 per vote subsidy given to all parties, which guts everyone’s internal finances. 

2. Opposition parties respond by focusing on the economic stimulus. They all argue against Harper’s economic plan and try to avoid the glaring elephant in the room: cuts to their party subsidy. Talks of having a coalition government become “serious”. 

3. Harper’s next move is to fulfill the gambit by giving up the party funding cuts issue. This throws the opposition parties off balance and puts them in tough dilemma. 

4. Opposition parties are now left with a couple of choices:

a) Don’t form the coalition government and dismiss the whole issue as speculation. This will create the opportunity for Conservatives to make the obvious point, I can already hear the argument being made: ”The opposition parties don’t really care about the economic stimulus, if they did, they wouldn’t have dropped the coalition idea after we dropped the party-funding cuts. We are the only party with integrity, the rest of them are just a bunch of self serving career politicians concerned with their own survival….etc.” Dion’s Liberals would likely have to “sit on their hands” again after passionately opposing Harper’s plan and vote with the government to avoid an election that no Canadian wants. We already know how that strategy is perceived in the minds of voters. 

b) Opposition parties could follow through on the bluff and form a coalition government to avoid this negative perception. Harper would respond with something like this, only with a much larger campaign. However, this creates the potential for an even more disastrous outcome if it works. Not only because the Liberal/NDP/Bloc government is likely to be somewhat unstable but also because they would now have to take full responsibility for the recession that seems almost inevitable. If the stimulus package doesn’t have the desired effect in the minds of Canadian voters, it would be a nightmare. Basically handing Harper the next election on a platter, especially if the coalition government falls apart with Dion and Layton fighting over control.

What should Canadians take out of this political game of chess? Ottawa is broken and we need real leadership in government. Harper’s style has been to play political games while Canada’s economic future hangs in the balance. 

As I’ve said before, Canada needs a change. As for who best represents that change? At this point, I don’t know but I am taking a careful look at what’s on the shelf, stay tuned.