I’ll also cover the ONDP leadership race on this blog and keep you updated on latest developments.
Here is the lineup so far, starting from the left (no pun intended):
- Peter Tabuns, MPP Toronto-Danforth
- Andrea Horwath, MPP Hamilton Centre
- Gilles Bisson, MPP Timmins-James Bay
- Michael Prue, MPP Beaches-East York
There isn’t a huge pool of candidates to choose from, Ontario’s NDP under Howard Hampton only managed to win 10 seats in 2007. The truth is that the party never really recovered after Bob Rae. The momentum gained in a surprise victory in 1990 didn’t last. After Premier Rae finished his term and went for reelection, NDP’s seats dropped from 74 to 17 in 1995. His supporters would probably say it wasn’t Rae’s fault that Ontario was going through tough economic times and that he was unfairly blamed. I think thats a terrible excuse, one that hasn’t worked with voters and never will. Rae left the party a couple years later with a shattered reputation, one that still haunts Ontario’s NDP to this day. In 1999, Haward Hampton only managed 9 seats and just 7 seats in 2003. Are Liberals sure they want Rae now?
That’s the history lesson, what happens now? Well, after winning twice, McGuinty already announced his intentions to run for the 3rd time. Considering how well he did last time, he is very likely to win again. McGuinty has built an impressive campaign organization over the years. His biggest threat is John Tory and he couldn’t even win his own riding last time. NDP’s challenges go beyond overcoming the Bob Rae syndrome, many ridings lack basic organization. ONDP’s campaign slogans, tactics, and policies aren’t connecting with voters. In fact, I think they have a hard time even finding candidates. You can imagine how that effects fundraising and volunteer numbers when it comes to election time. These are just some of the challenges facing Ontario’s NDP. Candidates, you sure you want this job?
The first debate is in Sudbury tomorrow. Peter Tabuns is probably the favorite to win at this point, his focus is the environment as former Greenpeace executive director. Andrea Horwath experience is mostly within city council and she seems to have some momentum behind her as a relative newcomer to provincial politics. I haven’t heard much about Gilles Bisson or Michael Prue. The latest news from the campaign is that the candidates will focus heavily on the economy. Considering Ontario is going into deficit and a likely recession, I’d be surprised if they weren’t talking about it. Whoever it will be, one thing is for certain, they’ll have a lot of work on their hands.
Vlad, you wrote: “His supporters would probably say it wasn’t Rae’s fault that Ontario was going through tough economic times and that he was unfairly blamed. I think thats a terrible excuse, one that hasn’t worked with voters and never will.”
Perhaps nobody wants to hear “excuses,” but we should certainly be open to explanations. Government control over the economy is quite limited. For the most part, economic activity is driven by profit-hungry corporations with little regard for collective well-being; it’s a kind of economic anarchy with very little collective planning and coordination involved.
Rae and the NDP were elected in Ontario in 1990; as we know, the Conservatives won the next election in 1995. So, did the NDP lose because it mismanaged Ontario’s finances? That was certainly the perception, and that idea was certainly fueled by the media. But could the NDP have stopped the bleeding?
As I see it, there was little that could have been done. Another commentator, Jordan Berger, listed “the many determinants of [the] deficits” as follows: “a high dollar, an almost criminally-damaging Bank of Canada policy of zero inflation, federal transfer cuts and the introduction of the GST, [and] the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” These economic and policy facts are relatively indisputable. And surely, such variables — which were entirely beyond the control of the provincial government — hurt the economy and Ontario’s finances.
To repeat, it was “the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” Is this something for which we should blame Rae and the NDP?
Ontario recently slipped into “have not” status — by some official definition — and will be receiving equalization payments from the federal government. Should we blame McGuinty and the Liberals for this decline? Politically, I might be inclined to do so. But would that be entirely honest? Absolutely not.