While the rumor that Dion was to resign today wasn’t true, the stories in the globe and the star all suggest its coming soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened months from now, there is still plenty of time until the leadership review in May.

So who will become the next leader? Lets take some lessons from Americans who elected a Republican president twice in a row. By the middle of the second term, Americans already had enough and begun wanting change. This gave opportunity to someone like Barack Obama who did the best job representing the change that Democrats wanted to see. Canadians, now too elected a Conservative leader into government for the second time and economic troubles are likely to get worse before they get better. This could mean that Canadians could also rally behind a new and inspirational leader who they feel could change how politics is done. 

Putting that argument aside, the top two obvious contenders are Ignatieff and Ray (interestingly, they both have blogs). Each has Liberals who like them and who really dislike them, neither of them have overwhelming support. If we are to learn anything from our friends south of the border is that at a time when people are hungry for inspiration and change, new leaders can emerge from underdog positions to take centre stage. My current picks of the top two underdogs who could emerge as winners, much like Dion did, are Gerrard Kennedy and Martha Hall Findley. Martha has a sort of Hillary Clinton appeal to her and Kennedy just defeated a pretty tough NDP opponent, Peggy Nash. Then there are other wild cards like Justin Trudeau who is very popular within the youth of the Liberal party and has a celebrity-like following everywhere he goes. John Manley is another name that has been thrown around, he would have an appeal to conservative voters. One thing is for certain, after watching Obama south of the border, Canadians have much higher expectation for political leaders. Charisma is now a prerequisite for anyone who wants a majority government. Time spent in Ottawa isn’t as important as it was before and so we could see any number of underdogs emerge to the top at any point.