How has the economic crisis effected the presidential race? If the election was held today, Obama is much more likely to win. CNN estimates 250 electoral seats for Obama vs 189 for McCain right now. Gallop daily shows Obama in the lead by 8%. The trend is that all battle ground states are on the move towards Obama. 

How can this be explained? 

1. The ballot question is be determined by what Americans spend their time talking about. If its the economy, no matter how hard McCain & Palin argues, Democrats will come out ahead because they are perceived to be stronger on that issue.

2. Organizing locally driven by hundreds of thousands of volunteers is working. Its incredible how many new voters they’ve managed to register in battle ground states. 

3. Obama’s advertising campaign worth hundreds of millions is in full swing. 

4. Obama won the debate vs McCain and Biden won the debate vs Palin.

There are 30 more days to go, absolutely anything can happen but I think this should be encouraging to Obama’s campaign workers, their efforts are paying off. Expect McCain to turn up the heat on the negative campaign, smearing Obama’s character and try to turn the ballot question back on national security.