I’ve been hearing rumors about a possible Harper majority this time around from Liberals and NDP supporters and I usually respond with the following three arguments for why I think Canadians are much more likely to elect another Conservative minority government.

First, “all politics is local.” Canadian elections are won and lost at the riding level. At the last election there were 308 seats and Harper won 124. The battle in each riding can be broken down to the battle between “databases”, a list of supporters each side has identified through canvasing and telephone banking. The bigger the list, the better your odds of winning. The list is passed on from election to election within the party (riding association) and thats why its pretty hard to win ridings that have been voting a certain way for a long time. All the incumbent party has to do is get the same supporters who voted last time to come out and vote again. The Liberals have a pretty well oiled machine on getting out their supporters so just because people think Dion isn’t polling well, doesn’t mean the Liberals won’t pick up the ridings they usually do, which is about 100 or so. So unless there is a huge shift in riding organization and voting pattern towards the Conservatives, we are much more likely to get another Conservative minority. 

Second, Liberals have a strong political brand. Many liberals I know aren’t thrilled about Dion but they are loyal to the Liberals brand. According to the polls, Liberals and Conservatives are typically tied if you account for the margin of error. There just hasn’t been enough damage to the Liberal brand for Harper to pull off a majority. 

Last but not least, there will be a spillover effect from the elections south of the border. About 70% of Canadians support Obama and thats why you’ll see Liberals and NDP use words like “change” and “hope” a lot more then we are used to in Canadian elections. Thats likely to help anyone but Harper. 

However, campaigns matter. History teaches us to never underestimate the power of a well run campaign. So a Harper majority is certainly possible, however, its more probable that Canadians will elect another minority government and we’ll be right back where we started. I might change my mind if there is something revolutionary happening within the next 5 weeks but for now thats how the cookie crumbles.