In the latest Harris/Decima Poll, Conservatives are up 7 points. So much for the so called Mulroney “Christmas present” that I said in a previous post would not gain any additional support for the Liberals & NDP, perhaps only stall Harper a little which it may have done.

If you want to know whether there will be an election or not, you have to look at whats happening in Quebec, they are the swing vote. Ironically for the Conservatives, whenever they do better in Quebec, so does BQ. Ever since about March last year, their weekly averages pattern look pretty similar. With BQ support rising, one can only hope Harper will not reopen the topic of changing the constitution like Mulroney tried to do twice and failed. Change with regards to giving certain people special status will not pass and only threaten national unity again.

The Liberals should stop playing into Conservative strategy and stop the internal “is Dion a good leader” debate. The media & even some Conservatives are shaping Dion to be somewhat of an “anti-politician”, but whats wrong with that? The liberals should get on top of that wave, create their own messaging around that, and hope that Obama’s anti-politician popularity trend rubs off here in Canada too. I suspect the year 2008, will be the year of anti-politicians in North America. Politicians, take note.

Here is something I suspected would happen as well:

“The other story emerging in our findings is the difficulty facing the NDP, which is struggling in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. In Ontario, the Green Party is edging ahead of the NDP, something especially evident in the GTA.”

This should be a big wake up call for the NDP to shake things up. In the last provincial election, in more then a couple ridings the Green’s overtook the NDP. For example, Mississauga Brampton South where neither candidates really campaigned. Simply put, the NDP needs more visibility. Since money is in short supply, the focus should be on free media such as talk shows, news, pop culture, etc. Shake up the messaging too and sound different. The NDP can make a better case when it comes to who is more of an anti-politician.

The Greens should continue what they are doing because its working.

Here is the Harris/Decima Poll Press release, I recommend you open up the document and read through it, its better to see the original document and make up your own mind instead of reading all the opinions in the news:

January 9th, 2008
Conservatives enter 2008 with solid lead; NDP Struggling

A new Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey shows the Conservatives
have recovered ground following a challenging December.

• In the latest week, the Conservatives stand at 37% compared to 30% for the Liberals, 13%
for the NDP, 10% for the BQ and 9% for the Green Party. This represents a recovery of 7
points for the Conservatives, from the 30% recorded in mid December, just after House
Ethics Committee hearings into the Mulroney-Schreiber relationship.

• In Quebec the latest week’s results find the BQ with 41%, the Conservatives 23%, the
Liberals 19%, the Green Party 9%, and the NDP with 8%. In Ontario, latest results show the
Liberals with 40%, the Conservatives 37%, the NDP 12%, and the Green Party 10%.

• In BC, three week averages show the Conservatives with 41% lead the Liberals with 28%,
the NDP with 19% and the Green Party at 11%. In Atlantic Canada, three-week averages
show Liberals with 34%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP 25%, and Greens 6%. (Our
polling took a two week break, accordingly the three weeks being averaged are from Dec 6-17 2007 and Jan 3-6 2008.)

harrisdecima.com